Is It Time to Cancel Those Leno Obituaries?
It's certainly not a best-case scenario, but in the face of all fears, the end of Jay Leno's ratings free fall doesn't seem bad. At last there are signs the NBC's Jay Leno experiment may have turned a corner.
Granted, if NBC has hit bottom, they've done so in a cavern deeper and scarier than anything they could have imagined a year ago. But like the rest of the nation, when it often seemed that our very foundations were coming undone and that our economy — or NBC's ratings report — would become a desolate wasteland populated solely by marauding cannibals; in the face of that, to find out we've stabilized on "pretty lousy" doesn't seem half bad. Our guess is its a scenario NBC would take in a heartbeat.
The first glimmers came last week when the Hollywood Reporter made the dramatic announcement that "NBC's prime time talk show has halted its heavily reported ratings slide. The piece goes on to outline how for eleven straight shows Leno had matched or improved its week over week performance in the advertiser-critical adult demo, ultimately earning his highest ratings in months last Wednesday.
When the Jay Leno experiment took to the airwaves, one of its premises was that it would be producing low cost, fresh shows year-round while its scripted competition aired reruns. Initially, that seemed another doomed NBC prediction, when the first wave of reruns hit the air and Leno tumbled before them. But suddenly, within the last week, Leno started holding his own against the repeats.
Last week, during Thanksgiving, Leno actually scored a milestone of sorts, certainly a dubious milestone, but a milestone nonetheless, as a rare Leno rerun earned higher ratings than an Ugly Betty rerun in the earlier 9 pm slot.
Further, the rest of the NBC late night line-up is showing signs of the apocalypse postponed. While NBC's iron lock on the 11:30 slot against Letterman is now long gone, the race between Conan O'Brien and Letterman has now turned from a complete rout into a nearly even match in what looks like it will be a long drawn-out struggle. Among the 18 - 49 year old demo, tvbythenumbers reports, NBC has halted its free fall and is now in an ongoing deadlock with CBS.
Of course, as the Reporter points out:
Leno's recent stability doesn't change the fact that on any given evening, his shows is usually the lowest-rated program on a major broadcast network. It also remains to be seen if Leno can continue to defy gravity as the holiday slump gets underway in earnest.
But for a man like Jay Leno who just a few weeks ago was staring down into the cold earth lining his own grave, last place must seem a heck of an improvement from no place. Next stop: second to last place!