Nate Silver is the crazy kid who invented PECOTA for Baseball Prospectus and now he's made good in the political prediction world! Can I get a "Woop woop?" Baseball fans? Anybody? Well look, Baseball Prospectus is like The Bible to stat geeks, and PECOTA is like a particularly important passage in that Bible (John 3:16, for example), so the fact that this 30-year-old guy who made it up is suddenly the hottest thing in political polling is unlikely and heartwarming to sports fans and political obsessives alike, to say the least! Nate Silver started writing about how wrong polls were in a little Daily Kos diary, and lo and behold, he ended up predicting the primaries better than anyone! Then all the pros were like, who is this kid? When he revealed himself as a Baseball Prospectus writer, a very thin slice of stat geeks were all like, "ZOMG unbelievably awesome!" Imagine if you found out that Richard Lawson had been selected as the new announcer on Monday Night Football. That's the level of thing that I'm talking about here, people. So of course New York did a big story on this kid, what with his acceptable level of quirk. He's basically the smartest pollster in America now, amazingly. And we'll cut through all the technical mumbo-jumbo and give it to you straight:

Maybe you didn't exactly invent an operating system. But other than that, Linus Torvalds is just like you! The open-source movement's favorite Finn has gotten into the blogging game, just like every other Tom, Dick, and Sergey. Unlike the Google founder, whose site blatantly promotes 23andMe, his wife Anne Wojcicki's gene-testing startup, Torvalds just wants to share news and pictures of his family. On the blog, he geeks out over Intel flash-memory disks and even shares a custom script to limit Internet usage for his kids. But like any good long-term resident alien with a green card, Torvalds laments the most about American politics, pointing out the fundamental problem with voting:

Sharon Waxman is a former NYT reporter who quit the paper to go to LA and make her way on the wild World Wide Web, which has "endlessly rich tools to pursue our craft," etc. She sent out an email today to her Trusted Friends and Colleagues telling them that The Wrap News, "which will have a fresh approach on reporting news in the entertainment industry" (!) and will be a "multi-platform source," etc., is all set to launch in January, and by the way please take a survey. And who will the world have to thank for Waxman's new "news and community resource for entertainment professionals?" Heartless Gawker, which made her quit her real job, allegedly!: Waxman's schadenfreude on our recent layoffs:

Tired of hearing tech bloggers opine authoritatively about politics, a subject they know nothing about but nevertheless retain strongly held views? That was so September 2008. Welcome to the next blogosphere megatrend: Tech bloggers opining authoritatively about the economy.

If you follow Robert Scoble at all — and you sort of have to unless your DSL is dead — you know he can't help overproliferating everything he does. While the entire staff of Vanity Fair takes months to assemble its 100 most powerful list, Fast Company's token webhead spews 165 names in one pass for his "hand-picked list of the people who provide the most interesting tech blogging/tweeting/FriendFeeding." Robert, let me put on my old Condé Nast editor's hat and redline this back to you: GREAT START, BUT PLS TELL US WHO THE FK THS PPL ARE:

Andrew Sullivan, wow. Just wow. The gay British conservative who over the course of a decade went from proud publisher of racist pseudo-science just for a larf to virulent Obama supporter has spent a month obsessing over everything Sarah Palin has ever said and done and even maybe done. So. He's written some stuff on the bizarre circumstances of the birth of Trig Palin. He defends it (reasonably in our estimation) by arguing that Palin's pro-life position and the politicization of her familial circumstances (special needs kids, son in Iraq, family on stage at convention) makes inquiry into her pregnancy relevant. Sullivan sent this crazy email to the McCain campaign, asking for comment:

It's so familiar a tale: An online community, once obsequiously friendly, turns nasty as it gets bigger. But the loss of innocence is hitting users of blogging service Tumblr especially hard. Perhaps it's because the audience, once limited to young New York hipsters in the social circle of founder David Karp. The latest cri de coeur comes from Silicon Alley Insider's Eric Krangel, who complains that Karp hasn't done enough to stem the tide of "anonybloggers" who "follow" users on the site in order to mock them. "Following" sounds a bit creepy, unless you know that its Tumblr slang for 'reading." Where's the button for banning anyone who deviates from the party line, users have started to whine. Would it be too much to ask Tumblr's fragile millennials to grow up instead?If you so desperately want an audience for what I'm sure is your boundless and inimitable wit, you're going to have to put up with the occasional heckler. Karp is a talented designer and developer, but there's no CSS or PHP code that will hack the incivility out of the human condition. Since nobody seems to be able to limit the intimate details of their personal lives to private channels of communication anymore, I recommend getting a therapist who will hold your deepest hopes and fears in confidence. I've found it can help.

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH EMILY BRILL? We can scarcely contain our curiosity; "Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray" to Emily. The idle, wealthy daughter of a media mogul—supporting herself with only a trust fund and a blog—has transformed into New York's ultimate narrator. Only she seems able to capture in prose the throbbing, relentless pulse that underlies this great city. We have so many questions: What did she have for dinner? How long did she wait to get in that bar? And what year was that terrorist attack, again? Come on New Yorkers, let's rock: Emily's literary style is informed by a lifetime of urban experience:

Google cofounder Sergey Brin has popped his blogging cherry, using his first post as an excuse to promote his wife Anne Wojcicki's personal genetic testing company 23andMe. Turns out Brin has a genetic mutation likely inherited from his mother that indicates a higher risk for Parkinson's Disease — a debilitating condition that affects movement, resulting in tremors and eventual paralysis. Which would certainly be a terrible fate for a gymnast who loves kite-surfing. Brin has "decades to prepare for it," though. My suggestion?Brin should do what many in the health-obsessed Valley unilaterally shun: Take up smoking, as nicotine has been shown to have a prophylactic effect on the degeneration of dopamine-producing brain cells in mice.

John Carney, editor of the readable financial news and gossip site Dealbreaker (founded by original Gawker Elizabeth Spiers), is leaving to edit a new, similar site from Silicon Alley Insider called "ClusterStock." Caroline Waxler, formerly at MainStreet.com, will be heading up fellow SAI blog the Business Sheet. SAI itself is losing its managing editor Peter Kafka, who will be starting a new media and advertising blog for AllThingsD. And wrestling champ Alex "Blue States Lose" Blagg is leaving his blogging gig at BestWeekEver. See, jobs exist!

We've heard so much about the exploits of fuck-a-chick blogger and filmmaker Tucker Max. What of those only tangentially related to him? Well, a 21-year-old UConn student who called Tucker "MY HERO" was arrested last weekend for "allegedly forcing his way into a sleeping woman's apartment and raping her." Also, Tucker Max's former lawyer is currently getting chewed out on Wikipedia for repeatedly trying to insert his own bio into Tucker's Wikipedia page. This has been your Tucker Max Associate Update.

Once upon a time a guy said he was a ghostwriter for Kanye West's blog, which Kanye denied as outrageous. Yesterday Kanye West was arrested in LA. His blog: updated normally all day. Hm. [Animal]

How did we miss this? The New Republic gave a blog to Howard Wolfson! Wolfson is Hillary Clinton's reviled old flack. He's known for his terrible sweaters, terrible NPR-schmindie taste in white people music, and for being a big loser like everyone else who is blamed for the mismanaged Clinton campaign. TNR editor (and big pussy loser, JUST LIKE HOWARD WOLFSON) Franklin Foer says: "The Flack aims to pull back the curtain on the dark art of the political operative. As Howard dishes out his punditry, he'll try to explain how the likes of Axelrod and Schmidt might work through their calculations." Yes, he'll pull back the curtain and then spew patent nonsense about what we can all plainly see behind this curtain. Then he will cry and listen to The Mountain Goats. [The Flack/TNR]

Finally, a place where Hollywood conservatives can have their say. Andrew Breitbart, the friendly half of the Drudge Report link machine, is about to launch what we can only describe as "Sort of the conservative mirror of the original idea for Huffington Post, the one what was quickly abandoned." His new venture will supposedly become a destination site for Hollywood conservatives (like Jean-Claude Van Damme!) to speak out, and have their musing published on the World Wide Web. And, you know, good luck with that. But why does anybody care? Who is this awesomely powerful (but liked!) online agenda-setter? It's not like the man has to start something new. His own news site, Breitbart.com, does huge traffic because it's where all of Drudge's wire report items link to. He also has a video site, and he worked on the launch of the now-successful Huffington Post (though he's since divested—he's a true conservative believer). Breitbart works the afternoon shift at the Drudge Report. The two have remarkably seamless editorial styles, though some feel Breitbart has a lighter touch. More importantly, while Matt Drudge himself rarely speaks to the press or flits about in public settings, Breitbart is actually popular, and even a bit of a real-life schmoozer:

Hah. He's 40 (40-year-old blogger! sad!), 5'11", and "went to one of those selective East Coast schools." Always important when looking for anonymous tail in a strange town! Guesses? We honestly don't even want to hazard one. (If Doree's list is representative, Craigslist Denver seems to be crawling with dudes looking to "pleasure" those hot lady Obama voters.) [Craigslist via NYO]

There's no news in Denver. At least, no news that couldn't be reported by watching it on C-Span from the comfort of home. So what to do? Report on what all your fellow journalists are doing! So far, the single greatest example of this is HuffPo's constant reportage from their own "HuffPost Oasis" in Denver. At left, an unretouched screengrab from their front page today. The Oasis is remarkably popular with journalists, considering that we have no idea what goes on there but we don't think it involves free booze. Wait, maybe we do know what's going on there! "'I feel relaxed!' said a particularly refreshed Eric Alterman as he stepped away from a complimentary facial for a minute. 'I'll tell you this—everyone should add facials to their lives.'" Oh, wow. That quote is from John Koblin's piece in today's Observer. It's got more gems: Adam Nagourney couldn't find a seat at his own paper's workspace, then bitched about having to cover the convention with so many other, lesser reporters. Fox's Greta Van Susteren, though, was more than happy to be there.

Hey, Denver has its own angry ad blogger, like a minor league Copyranter! His take on shitty creative briefs: "There are the 'emotional/rational reasons to believe'...I’ve seen 'none' in that space." Heh. At least they're honest. [Denver Egotist]

Why the hell have we written so much about Tucker Max? Because you want to read it! What started out as nothing more than a one-off request to have a look at a bad movie script has blossomed into full-blown miniseries chronicling the many dimensions of our bro Tucker's internet-famous personality. But why did anyone care about this rather pedestrian guy in the first place? Schadenfreude is involved, we suspect. We've taken the time to delve into the psychology of this pressing issue below, in the Gawker Field Guide To Tucker Max. Complete with photos from Tucker's incredible life! Who is he?

After Fark.com's Drew Curtis sent us a firsthand account last week of life on the set of I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell, the upcoming comedic movie masterpiece written by fratire dude Tucker Max, another crew member followed up with his own list of gripes to us about working under a first-time movie maker who's also one of America's foremost assholes. I enjoy these leaks because-unlike our own in-house appraisals of Tucker's style-they come from people with no real ideological reason to dislike the man. Some people just want to work in peace! After the jump, our tipster's account of Tucker Max-"usually pricks like him are surrounded by pricks," he says, but in this case, "there's just one dick and he's a big one."

Fun fact: Drew Curtis, the guy who runs linky website Fark, went to high school for one year with professional asshole (but not moron) blogger-turned-film writer Tucker Max. So Drew somehow got handed a cameo role in I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell. Drew-who's big enough on the internet to not give a fuck what we or Tucker Max think-sent us a full report, saying Tucker is "out of control" but the actors are doing a good job, considering the material they're working with. And pictures! Click through now: The actors at work (Tucker character in white t-shirt):