No one can be sure until the last minute, but the odds of a government shutdown in three days have never been higher after a day of collapsed talks. Congressional parties and the White House are hunkering down for cover to ensure they don't get blamed. But it's important to remember, as we watch this parlor game, that a government shutdown affects "real lives" quite directly.

Barack Obama has negotiated away one of his better bargaining chips — a two-year freeze on all civilian federal salaries — in exchange for... well, nothing. This will save $60 billion over the next decade, while Barack Obama remains despised.