Little Jimmy's at the tree extracting an oblong box from the stash. Ripping off the paper, his jaw drops in astonishment. It's no Wii; it's a raincheck. His parents didn't quite purchase a Nintendo Wii, you see. Little Jimmy can't exchange the slip of paper until the red-hot videogame consoles are in stock again, supposedly sometime in January. Yes, even a full year after launch, retailers can't keep Wiis on shelves. Analysts estimate Nintendo has lost $1 billion in sales this holiday because of the shortage. So while Nintendo USA topper Reggie Fils-Aimé says the raincheck program is a way for parents to put a Wii under the tree, we doubt Little Jimmy will be fooled. Wall Street analysts, on the other hands, may well be.